How the world can avoid millions going hungry when supply chains collapse

Millions more people will face hunger in the coming months if the conflict in the Middle East is not resolved soon, the UN has warned. The price of energy, which instantly affects the cost of producing and transporting food, has risen sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The price of fertilizer, much of it made in the Gulf states and exported via the same stretch of water, has also soared. So it seems inevitable that the cost of food around the world will increase, just as it did after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (both countries were big exporters of food and fertilizer).

Back then, some governments responded with expensive taxpayer funded subsidies for producers and consumers. But the situation in the Middle East highlights how consumers everywhere remain vulnerable to such geographically concentrated production of energy and fertilizer.

Here are four ways that the world could attempt to build a food system that would be far more resilient to future shocks.

1. Grow greener

The current situation is surely a sign that the time has now come for agriculture to make the transition to “green ammonia“—ammonia produced using renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels. (Ammonia is a key ingredient in nitrogen-based fertilizer.)

Instead of depending on certain countries or regions for fertilizer production, it would be possible to produce home grown fertilizer when the sun shines and the wind blows.

The first green ammonia plants are now being constructed in sunny places such as Chile, Morocco and Australia. It’s an expensive switch, but the declining cost of renewables combined with wildly fluctuating gas prices could soon make it a more competitive and secure alternative.

A successful transition will depend on sustained commitment (and investment) from governments—especially when the Strait of Hormuz eventually opens again.

2. Stockpile

Governments should also rethink the way they stock food. Modern logistics and slick supply chains mean that many countries store certain products to last a few days or weeks, with the assumption that those stocks can be swiftly replenished.

Some places (Sweden, China and India, for example) take a longer-term approach, seemingly driven by a stronger sense of the importance of self-sufficiency. Other countries should follow their lead, and think beyond stockpiling things like grains, to other essential farm supplies like fertilizer and pesticides. But they need to do so gradually to not distort already tight markets in the short term.

This kind of change would also align with broader national security ambitions that are emerging across Europe and elsewhere. Food stocks to cope with periods of uncertainty and disruption would be an essential part of that.

3. Grow more plants

A demand change towards reducing waste and healthier diets—specifically by eating more plant proteins—could swiftly improve food security and resilience.

Animal farming requires large amounts of fertilizer for the crops providing their feed. Plant proteins such as legumes (beans, lentils, peas) require much less fertilizer (they can even “create” their own fertilizer in their roots through nitrogen fixation).

They also have other advantages, including improved nutrition, and much reduced carbon emissions.

4. Electrify transport

Biofuels, such as ethanol and bio-diesel, are often portrayed as sustainable fuel alternatives. But the crops used to produce these fuels (such as corn and rapeseed) now occupy an area at least the size of Italy.

That’s a lot of land being used to deliver not very much fuel (in the UK, biofuel powers less than 7% of the country’s transport needs).

Instead, building solar or wind farms to provide energy for electric vehicles is a much more efficient use of land when it comes to fueling transport needs.

Accelerating the electrification of transport and rapidly phasing out crop-based fuel would release tens of millions of hectares globally for things like food production, rewilding and carbon storage.

Towards resilience

Building a more resilient food system will not happen overnight. Changing diets and switching fuels and fertilizer dependencies takes time. It will involve trade-offs as well as considerable political and commercial will.

None of that is easy to achieve, and previous global spikes in food prices (in 2007, 2010 and 2022) did not lead to significant changes.

Yet the alternative is to remain exposed to repeated shocks. Climate change and geopolitical tensions will continue to disrupt global supply chains.

The current crisis is not only yet another warning about the fragility of today’s food system, but also an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards one that is much better able to withstand future disruption.

Who’s behind this story?

Lisa Lock

BA art history, MA material culture. Former museum editor, paramedic, and transplant coordinator. Editing for Science X since 2021.

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Andrew Zinin

Master’s in physics with research experience. Long-time science news enthusiast. Plays key role in Science X’s editorial success.

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.