Human-driven climate change significantly intensified the retreat of one of the most important glaciers in Antarctica during the 20th century. The Pine Island Glacier, which drains a large part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Amundsen Sea, is one of the biggest contributors to global sea level rise.
This research, led by scientists at King’s College London and the British Antarctic Survey and published in The Cryosphere, is the first study to directly attribute the changes of a major Antarctic outlet glacier to human activities.
The authors of the study are also warning that the impact of human activity will continue to shape Antarctic ice loss for centuries.
Human influence sharpened the retreat
The research finds that greenhouse gas emissions increased the retreat of Pine Island Glacier by around 18%–20% since the 1940s. This has added several kilometers (several miles) to its landward withdrawal.
Lead author Dr. Alex Bradley, Department of Geography, says that the scale of retreat seen over the industrial era is very unlikely to have occurred without human influence.
“Our results show that climate change made the retreat of the Pine Island Glacier substantially worse,” said Bradley, the study’s lead author. “Without sustained warming of the surrounding ocean since the mid-20th century, the glacier would not have retreated as far as it has.”
While attribution studies have previously linked the retreat of mountain glaciers to human-driven warming, applying similar techniques to Antarctic glaciers has proved far more challenging.
“This kind of work has become common for heat waves and floods, and increasingly for mountain glaciers,” said Bradley. “What’s new here is showing, quantitatively, how human influence has altered the course of a major Antarctic glacier.”
Mira Adhikari, an ice sheet modeler at the British Antarctic Survey, said, “Our results add to growing evidence that human-driven climate change is likely affecting even the most remote regions of the planet. Changes in Antarctica have global consequences, particularly for sea level rise, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of a warming world.”
Modeling the glacier’s altered path
Geological records indicate that Pine Island Glacier began retreating rapidly in the 1940s, likely due to stronger intrusions of warm ocean water beneath its ice shelf. This study showed that human-driven ocean warming, thought to have begun in the 1960s, enhanced the retreat after that.
Using a model that simulates glacier behavior, with observed changes in ice thickness and retreat constraining its estimates, the researchers compared scenarios with and without human-driven global warming.
By 2015, simulations excluding human influence showed around 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) less grounding-line retreat. That difference accounts for just under one-fifth of the glacier’s observed retreat.
A brief pause, not an end
Looking ahead, the models suggest Pine Island Glacier may briefly stabilize later this century as it encounters a ridge in the bedrock beneath it. However, that pause is likely to be temporary if warming continues, with human influence becoming the dominant driver of retreat again in the 22nd century.
“Ice sheets respond slowly,” Bradley said. “The impacts of today’s emissions will continue to shape Antarctic ice loss for centuries.”
Publication details
The Cryosphere (2026).
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King’s College London
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Human activity has driven retreat of Antarctica’s fastest melting glacier (2026, June 28)
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