Industrial leaders in China believe the nation is on track to replace its heavy-duty freight truck fleet with electric vehicles (EVs). If achieved, this, they believe, should cut emissions in the industry by as much as 50%.
At present, most nations rely heavily on heavy-duty trucks to keep their economies in motion. While effective, large freight vehicles consume huge amounts of fuel, such as diesel, which is notoriously polluting.
These trucks are vital for moving goods around for many industries, and often run long distances, often continuously. If this could be electrified, the impact on oil consumption and impact on the environment, it is argued, could be slashed.
“As a means of production, economics is the core consideration,” Liang Linhe, chairman of Sany Truck, said at an industry forum on April 11. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), he estimated that much lower transport costs would drive market penetration to a point “even potentially approaching 100 per cent, leaving little room for diesel trucks”.
Truck electrification could slash diesel consumption
And if any nation could pull this off, it should be China. The nation has spent years, even decades, building up its domestic logistics capacity, and trucks are a large part of that. At the same time, they have invested massively in EV technology with some of the largest companies, like BYD, already dominating the global supply of batteries and vehicles.
But for 100% replacement of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, a means of making cheaper batteries will be key. In fact, battery swapping will likely play a major role.
The idea is that instead of waiting, perhaps hours, to charge, if batteries could be swapped out, this would dramatically slash commercial fleet downtime. Less lost time translates directly into making it more commercially viable.
And this really is the bottom dollar. If EV trucks can be shown to be just as effective but cheaper, then fleet operators will jump at the chance to switch over. That, Linhe argued, is the key to making this work.
For China’s economy, this would be a huge boon as it currently relies heavily on oil imports from regions like the Middle East. In fact, about 40% alone comes from the Gulf, and any impact on supply (like the US-Iran conflict) can hurt its economy very badly.
So, electrification of the fleet is not just about cost, but will also play a vital role in Chinese energy independence in the future. “Forecasting a precise market share is difficult given current global uncertainties,” said Albert Hu, CEO of CiDi, a Hong Kong-listed company that builds driverless commercial vehicles.
Vital for Chinese energy independence
“That said, the volatility of oil prices remains a critical concern for fleet operators, making the economic case for new-energy trucks stronger than ever,” he added.
“It is obvious that China’s comprehensive automotive and industrial supply chains and the deep pool [of] engineering talent are giving us quite some advantages,” he said.
However, to get there, some critical hurdles need to be navigated first. Batteries are still very heavy, which reduces payload capacity and ultimately range.
While battery swapping would help, the current charging infrastructure is still a bottleneck in most countries, and grid capacity also needs to be upgraded prior to the mass rollout of charging stations nationwide.
For this reason, electrification will likely be seen in industries like mining, ports, and short-haul initially, with expansion to the general freight sector much later. But time and tide will tell.