The market for commercial autonomous vehicles (AVs) is poised for explosive growth over the coming decade, and 4D imaging radar has a key part to play. 4D radar, which offers a 4D view combining distance, velocity, position, and vertical resolution, will help AV companies deploy autonomous fleets in real-world environments faster while also building the potential to scale such deployments rapidly.
The autonomous truck market alone is set to rocket from $50.8 billion this year to $158.7 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 13.5%, according to a research report by MarketsandMarkets. With technology the key driver of growth, according to the researcher, the adoption of advanced sensors such as 4D radar, alongside high-performance computing platforms and AI-based software, is vital to this expansion.
However, one of the key challenges facing the sector is that 4D radar solutions have, until now, tended to operate as closed systems, meaning that access to the raw data is limited. Newer systems, such as bitsensing’s AIR4D imaging radar, will help enable developers and AV companies to continuously refine vehicles’ perception models and validate their performance.
In turn, this will accelerate the path from testing new systems to safe and large-scale deployment in real-world fleets. This will drastically speed up the commercialization of AVs worldwide.
In contrast to sensors such as LiDAR and camera sensors, radar offers key advantages that will be vital to driving real-world use in the commercial vehicle sector. It is safe, cost-effective, and proven, and it is already widely incorporated into advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to offer the velocity accuracy needed for ADAS functions such as automatic emergency braking. This is a well-known technology and already evolving into more advanced 4D systems, suited for commercial vehicles.
Radar systems work in all weather conditions (cameras, for example, struggle in fog and low-light conditions as well as over longer ranges). The latest radar systems work comfortably at ranges of more than 200 meters and have low power consumption. The technology can easily be integrated into vehicle systems, with manufacturers already building systems designed specifically for the commercial AV market.
The 4D advantage
The reason 4D radar is so important for the rapid commercialization of AV technology is that it enables the rapid classification of different kinds of road users (for instance, pedestrians, buses, and cars). This will play an important role in enabling trucks, buses, and robotaxis to move safely through city streets, whether in Level 2 or 3 autonomy (where driving is conditionally automated) and moving toward Level 4 autonomy (where driving is highly automated, with vehicles capable of driving fully autonomously in real-world settings without the assistance of a human driver).
The reason 4D radar is so powerful is that it instantly senses distance, velocity, and position, along with vertical resolution. This means that anything “seen” by the vehicle has not only movement but also shape and altitude. This allows vehicle systems to sense how quickly an object is moving and rapidly categorize it as a certain class of vehicle, such as a motorbike or truck, or a pedestrian.
The rapid adoption of 4D radar will be a key growth driver in commercial AVs. Today, some robotaxis already ship with more than 20 advanced 4D sensors, and this will become a key trend across the market for commercial vehicles. Analysis by ResearchAndMarkets found that 169 million radar sensors shipped globally in 2024, translating into 0.8 long-range radars per vehicle and rising to one per vehicle by 2030.
The adoption of regional regulatory mandates (such as the EU’s Vehicle General Safety Regulations) is also helping to accelerate the growth of commercial AVs. The latest radar sensors offer both horizontal and vertical resolution, enhancing obstacle-detection and collision-avoidance capabilities. This means they can cope with any road conditions and any weather conditions, complying with the new regulations.
Built for commercial vehicles
To really drive the commercial AV market forward, it’s also vital that sensors are purposely designed for full autonomy, rather than being repurposed from devices for the consumer market. Today, many 4D radars were developed for use in ADAS, rather than being built from the ground up for full driverless functionality.
To truly deliver the information that AVs need, these systems should be optimized to deliver 4D sensor data directly to the AI models in these vehicles. They should also be optimized for power and heat efficiency. These features will be vital for real-world operation.
Going forward, a camera-plus-radar architecture will also be crucial to offering a viable path to curbing per-vehicle sensor costs. This will help to drive faster AV deployment on roads around the world. These are some of the design factors that we have also considered with our own work, including with the AIR4D imaging radar.
Increasing accuracy
The latest radar sensors build on the strengths of the technology to offer higher performance than rival sensors, such as LiDAR and cameras, with long-range detection up to 300 meters and the ability to operate in near-total darkness. This allows commercial vehicles to maintain awareness even on poorly lit roads in the middle of the night.
The ability to measure direct velocity per object is also helping to enable faster and more accurate decision-making, with the latest radar sensors able to measure the speed and direction of vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians in real time. This means that radar alone can provide full spatial accuracy. With previous generations of 3D radars, other sensors were relied on to create a “full” image of the objects moving in the surrounding environment.
Today, AVs equipped with 4D radar can build a high-resolution, real-time spatial picture of their environment across all four dimensions. This is what safe autonomous driving demands. With 4D radars penetrating even snow and rain and able to integrate with cameras, radar is the foundation of a comprehensive perception system, which will be the building block of autonomous driving.
Toward safer bus fleets
There are many factors that make radar sensors appealing in a commercial context, especially the “weather-proof” nature of the technology. Commercial fleets, such as the use case of buses in Korea, are already adopting radar-based technology through initial pilot schemes, with further plans to expand fully to intercity bus routes.
Critically, these ADASes have modularity at their heart, with features that can be easily added to existing vehicles. These functions, such as forward-collision warning, enable buses to precisely detect vehicles and pedestrians, even in the most demanding environments or roads.
A 4D future
The dawn of the commercial AV era is upon us today, and to drive forward into this future, it’s clear that 4D imaging radar has a vital role to play. Not only will 4D radar help to overcome the limitations of previous sensors, such as LiDAR and cameras, but it also transcends the limitations of previous radar systems, with the latest sensors purpose-built for seamless integration into the fleets of tomorrow.
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